Methodology

How our data and estimates work

Parents and students use this app to make consequential decisions. We owe you transparency about where the numbers come from and what they can - and cannot - tell you.

Data sources

Admissions numbers always describe a class that has already enrolled. Nobody publishes the acceptance rate for the class applying this fall until after it is decided, so every figure below is labeled with the fall it describes.

Each school's Common Data Set, for the 195 schools we profile in depth: acceptance rate, yield, SAT and ACT 25th to 75th percentile bands, class rank, waitlist activity, and what the school says it weighs. We read each school's own published document. Current mix: 78 from 2025-2026 (fall 2025 entering class), 109 from 2024-2025 (fall 2024 entering class), 5 from 2023-2024 (fall 2023 entering class), 3 from 2022-2023 (fall 2022 entering class). 8 schools had not published anything newer than 2023-2024 on their own sites when we last checked, so their pages show that older cycle and say so. A few curated schools have no Common Data Set acceptance figure on file; their pages mark the acceptance rate as an estimate.
IPEDS admissions survey (National Center for Education Statistics): applicants, admits, enrollment, yield, SAT and ACT bands, and admission considerations for about 1,600 four-year schools. We load the fall 2024 survey, the newest NCES has published. It is the provisional release; NCES revises it about a year later and we will swap in the final figures then.
College Scorecard (U.S. Department of Education): acceptance rates and SAT/ACT bands for schools outside our curated set (its current release reports fall 2024 admissions, the same survey year as above), plus median earnings 10 years after enrollment, debt, and completion rates. When the Scorecard and the IPEDS survey describe different years, the newer one is shown. Source: collegescorecard.ed.gov.
Common App Member Requirements: per-school deadlines, application fees, test policy, recommendation requirements, supplemental writing requirements. Sourced from the public PDF Common App publishes each cycle. We import the official 2026-27 file, published August 28, 2026, so deadlines, fees, testing policy, and recommendation requirements are read from the source rather than inferred. Schools can still change a date after publication, so confirm anything you are close to directly with the school. The public PDF does not include CEEB IDs, supplemental-essay counts, or interview policy, so those fields stay blank in our data rather than being guessed.

Start with the school's overall published acceptance rate. For schools we profile in depth that is the Common Data Set figure, labeled with its cycle; for every other school it is the federal figure for fall 2024. Acceptance rates move from year to year, so a rate that is a year or two old is a reasonable starting point, not this year's number.
Adjust for stats fit. We treat ~100 SAT points and ~0.3 GPA as one band on either side of the school's reported averages. Above the median multiplies the baseline up (to roughly 1.9x); below multiplies it down (as far as roughly 0.2x). The exact range depends on whether we have a full 25th-to-75th percentile band or a single average. Where a school publishes a 25th-to-75th percentile score band (its Common Data Set, or the College Scorecard / IPEDS band we use for every other four-year school), we compare against that band directly instead of a single average. GPA is compared on the unweighted 4.0 scale, because that is the scale schools report their averages on; if we only have a weighted GPA on file we leave GPA out of the comparison rather than mix scales. At schools that are test-blind (for example the University of California system), we ignore SAT and ACT entirely and rely on GPA and rigor, because those schools cannot consider a score even if you send one.
Adjust for application timing. When applying ED, we apply the school's reported early-decision advantage (typically 1.5x to 3x), or a 2.0x default when the school has not published its own early-vs-regular split. Treat this as a ceiling, not a personal guarantee: much of the published gap between early and regular admit rates reflects who applies early (often stronger or hooked candidates), not the timing by itself.
Adjust for demonstrated interest. Schools that mark interest as "Important" weight tracked touchpoints meaningfully: 3+ touchpoints adds 15%, zero touchpoints subtracts 25%. "Considered" schools see smaller adjustments. "Not Considered" schools ignore touchpoints.
Clamp to 1-95%. The number never reads as "guaranteed" or "impossible" without strong evidence.

What the chance estimate does NOT account for

Essay quality
Recommendation strength or specificity
Hooks (legacy, athletic recruitment, faculty connections, first-generation status, geographic diversity)
Major-specific admit rates (engineering and CS programs at universities are typically more selective than the university overall)
Application portfolio strategy (shotgunning highly selective schools weakens the average odds, not the per-school odds)
Application year volatility (acceptance rates have moved 30-50% across cycles for some schools)
Institutional priorities for any given cycle (budget, demographic targets, geographic balance)

Treat the number as one signal, not THE answer. If our estimate disagrees with your school counselor's read, weight the counselor higher.

Cost and earnings figures

Tuition figures are sticker price, not what most students actually pay. The Cost vs Earnings chart in /compare attempts a fairer comparison by subtracting average financial aid from sticker, then multiplying by 4 years - but this still doesn't reflect your specific family's aid award. For that, use each school's Net Price Calculator (linked from the school detail page).

Earnings figures (median, 10 years out) come from College Scorecard, which uses federal tax data. They reflect a single number for the entire school across all majors - earnings by specific major are visible in /outcomes.

How fresh is the data?

Federal admissions data runs about two years behind: NCES posts a fall class's admissions figures roughly fifteen months later, so during the 2026-2027 application season the newest available is fall 2024. Common App requirements refresh each summer for the upcoming cycle. Schools publish a new Common Data Set once a year, and we re-read them each summer and whenever a school posts late. Some fields in our curated records (for example demonstrated-interest weight, or a score average where no Common Data Set band exists) are estimates and are labeled that way. Every admissions number on a school page names the year or cycle it comes from.

Bugs, gaps, or wrong data?

We document everything we can verify; we don't guess at fields we don't have sourced. If you spot something wrong or stale, let us know and we'll correct it.

Data sources

Each school's Common Data Set, for the 195 schools we profile in depth: acceptance rate, yield, SAT and ACT 25th to 75th percentile bands, class rank, waitlist activity, and what the school says it weighs. We read each school's own published document. Current mix: 78 from 2025-2026 (fall 2025 entering class), 109 from 2024-2025 (fall 2024 entering class), 5 from 2023-2024 (fall 2023 entering class), 3 from 2022-2023 (fall 2022 entering class). 8 schools had not published anything newer than 2023-2024 on their own sites when we last checked, so their pages show that older cycle and say so. A few curated schools have no Common Data Set acceptance figure on file; their pages mark the acceptance rate as an estimate.

IPEDS admissions survey (National Center for Education Statistics): applicants, admits, enrollment, yield, SAT and ACT bands, and admission considerations for about 1,600 four-year schools. We load the fall 2024 survey, the newest NCES has published. It is the provisional release; NCES revises it about a year later and we will swap in the final figures then.

College Scorecard (U.S. Department of Education): acceptance rates and SAT/ACT bands for schools outside our curated set (its current release reports fall 2024 admissions, the same survey year as above), plus median earnings 10 years after enrollment, debt, and completion rates. When the Scorecard and the IPEDS survey describe different years, the newer one is shown. Source: collegescorecard.ed.gov.

Common App Member Requirements: per-school deadlines, application fees, test policy, recommendation requirements, supplemental writing requirements. Sourced from the public PDF Common App publishes each cycle. We import the official 2026-27 file, published August 28, 2026, so deadlines, fees, testing policy, and recommendation requirements are read from the source rather than inferred. Schools can still change a date after publication, so confirm anything you are close to directly with the school. The public PDF does not include CEEB IDs, supplemental-essay counts, or interview policy, so those fields stay blank in our data rather than being guessed.

Start with the school's overall published acceptance rate. For schools we profile in depth that is the Common Data Set figure, labeled with its cycle; for every other school it is the federal figure for fall 2024. Acceptance rates move from year to year, so a rate that is a year or two old is a reasonable starting point, not this year's number.

Adjust for stats fit. We treat ~100 SAT points and ~0.3 GPA as one band on either side of the school's reported averages. Above the median multiplies the baseline up (to roughly 1.9x); below multiplies it down (as far as roughly 0.2x). The exact range depends on whether we have a full 25th-to-75th percentile band or a single average. Where a school publishes a 25th-to-75th percentile score band (its Common Data Set, or the College Scorecard / IPEDS band we use for every other four-year school), we compare against that band directly instead of a single average. GPA is compared on the unweighted 4.0 scale, because that is the scale schools report their averages on; if we only have a weighted GPA on file we leave GPA out of the comparison rather than mix scales. At schools that are test-blind (for example the University of California system), we ignore SAT and ACT entirely and rely on GPA and rigor, because those schools cannot consider a score even if you send one.

Adjust for application timing. When applying ED, we apply the school's reported early-decision advantage (typically 1.5x to 3x), or a 2.0x default when the school has not published its own early-vs-regular split. Treat this as a ceiling, not a personal guarantee: much of the published gap between early and regular admit rates reflects who applies early (often stronger or hooked candidates), not the timing by itself.

Adjust for demonstrated interest. Schools that mark interest as "Important" weight tracked touchpoints meaningfully: 3+ touchpoints adds 15%, zero touchpoints subtracts 25%. "Considered" schools see smaller adjustments. "Not Considered" schools ignore touchpoints.

Clamp to 1-95%. The number never reads as "guaranteed" or "impossible" without strong evidence.

What the chance estimate does NOT account for

Essay quality

Recommendation strength or specificity

Hooks (legacy, athletic recruitment, faculty connections, first-generation status, geographic diversity)

Major-specific admit rates (engineering and CS programs at universities are typically more selective than the university overall)

Application portfolio strategy (shotgunning highly selective schools weakens the average odds, not the per-school odds)

Application year volatility (acceptance rates have moved 30-50% across cycles for some schools)

Institutional priorities for any given cycle (budget, demographic targets, geographic balance)

Treat the number as one signal, not THE answer. If our estimate disagrees with your school counselor's read, weight the counselor higher.

Cost and earnings figures

How fresh is the data?